Yovan Gabric | REALTOR®The Brief · October 8, 2026
September was quiet across the GTA: fewer buyers, fewer sellers, and prices still sliding. The gap between the two is why selection is thin even though prices are softer. A Bank of Canada decision on 28 October could change the rate picture again.
TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, released 6 October 2026.
The finding
Oakville has 4.9 months of inventory, against 3.6 in Burlington and 3.8 in Milton, and homes sold at 96% of list price. The same GTA headline hides very different leverage from one town to the next. In Oakville, buyers can negotiate; in Burlington, the numbers favour sellers more.
In this brief
TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
There were 5,040 sales across the GTA, down 9.0% from a year earlier. New listings fell faster, by 14.4% to 16,500. The average price was $1,006,409 (−5.1%) and the HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.7%. Townhouse sales fell furthest (−12.8%), then detached (−8.7%).
What it means: Listings are shrinking faster than sales. That cushions prices, but it also means fewer good homes to choose from.
TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
Oakville sold 162 homes at an average of $1,365,169 (median $1,211,500), selling at 96% of list price in 32 days on average. With 1,073 active listings, that is 4.9 months of inventory, the loosest of the four Halton municipalities (Burlington 3.6, Milton 3.8, Halton Hills 4.1).
What it means: Oakville buyers have more room to negotiate than buyers in Burlington or Milton, where the same month looks tighter.
Urbanation Q2 2026, as reported by CP24
New condo apartment sales rose about 52% year over year to 702 units, still roughly 86% below the 10-year Q2 average. The gain came from completed buildings (535 units, helped by bulk purchases and HST relief). Pre-construction sales fell about 80% to 50, and no new projects launched for a second quarter.
What it means: The activity is in completed inventory. That is where builder incentives and flexibility tend to show up.
Urbanation’s Q3 report is expected in late October; check it before relying on these figures.
Urbanation Q2 2026, as reported by MPA
Urbanation notes that the proposed HST relief requires construction to start before 31 March 2027 and be substantially complete by 31 December 2029. A project that starts late may not qualify.
What it means: Ask the builder, in writing, when construction starts and whether your unit is expected to qualify. Confirm with your lawyer.
Eligibility rules can change. Confirm current rules with the CRA or your lawyer.
Apartmentbuildings.com (citing the Toronto Star)
Reporting in May said GTA power of sale listings hit a two-year high in April, tied to softer prices, a slow spring market and homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth.
What it means: More lender-led sales means more choice, and more homes where condition is unknown.
Secondhand citation. We found no current authoritative monthly count; treat the trend as directional.
Bank of Canada schedule
The policy rate has been held at 2.25% since December 2025. The next decision is 28 October, and it comes with updated forecasts.
What it means: If you are on a variable rate or renewing soon, get a rate quote and a rate hold before the announcement.
Date and outcome unconfirmed until announced. A future date, not a news event yet.
Royal LePage Blog (Michelle McNally)
Autumn can be a good time to sell: buyers who missed the spring market are still looking, so presentation still matters.
What it means: With fewer listings, a well-presented home stands out.
This week
Market statistics describe past transactions and are not a prediction. Not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage. Yovan Gabric, REALTOR®, Royal LePage Pinnacle, Brokerage, independently owned and operated. E. & O.E.
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